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Monthly Archives: January 2018

Why truncation of x axis in bottom graph at 4%?

29 Monday Jan 2018

Posted by Daniel in orientation, Uncategorized

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Answer to readers about graphs:

The top graph shows the evolution of the worldvolatility since 1974. An empirical observation that can be easily seen is that the values seem to stop decreasing around 4%. Why at 4%? That is unknown at this point, but it seems to hold as a worldvolatility low.

The bottom graph is just a zoom (in the long graph from 1974) from the last time the worldvolatility hit a 4% low , which was in the summer of 2014. The truncation of x axis at 4% is just to get a close up on the evolution of the worldvolatility.

So both graphs show the same evolution of the Worldvolatility, the bottom one being the close-up and the top one being the “big picture” from 1974.

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Worldvolatility at 4,32% in USD terms

18 Thursday Jan 2018

Posted by Daniel in Worldvolatility

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The Worldvolatility will likely approach the 4% level soon, in what will be the 9th time since 1974. The road there can be longer or shorter mostly depending on Central bank policies going forward. The 90s saw the markets crawling close to 4% for almost two years. Whether the process will be quick or slow I will keep you posted.

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